Hitachi Home and Life Solutions (India) Ltd

Hello to all my readers. I hope you all are having a gala time out there in the markets, as these roller coaster rides presents us with great opportunities to buy some good company at a bargain price.

Let me share with you one such company who’s making a focused roadmap for its future growth and wanting to make it big in Indian Consumer Durables Market.    

Hitachi Home & Life Solutions (India) Ltd

About the company

Hitachi Home & Life Solutions (India) Ltd is a subsidiary of Hitachi Appliances Inc, Japan. Hitachi manufactures various kinds of products including Room Air-conditioners and Commercial Air-conditioners, and is into trading of VRF Systems, Rooftops, Chillers, and Refrigerators.

Headquartered in Ahmadabad, Gujarat, the company's manufacturing facility at Kadi, Gujarat, is among the ten Hitachi air-conditioner facilities worldwide. With a total installed capacity of 400,000 units in a year, Hitachi is amongst the top air-conditioning companies in India.         

It has a strong nationwide distribution with presence in 236 town (plans to increase this to 300 cities) consisting of 18 Branches, 159 Exclusive Sales and Service dealers; more than 1800 Showroom dealers (plans to increase it to 3000 by end of 2011), 350 Service Points along with 32 company owned and operated service centers-manned by 1200 technicians.

Product portfolio

The company has a presence in Air Conditioners and Refrigerator markets.

AC Category	Products
Room Air Conditioners	Window AC, Split AC, Tower
Packaged Air Conditioners	Concealed Splits, Ductable, Ceiling, Cassette
Spacemaker	Specific Telecom Cooling Solution
Setfree	Variable Refrigerant Volume System
Chillers	Large Air-Conditioning Application
Refrigerator Category	Products
Refrigerators	3 Door Refrigerators
	2 Door Refrigerators
	Big French

For further specification of each product you can click here. As per the company its products are technological advance and superior in the market compared to other products. For details you can click here 

Historic Analysis

Segment and Revenue analysis

• Hitachi is majorly into selling various types of Air-conditioners. It has an installed capacity of 150000 units which was increased to 230000 units in FY10 (single shift basis). It has increased its production from 86874 units in FY06 to 268699 units in FY11 at a CAGR of 25%.
• Total units of Air-conditioners sold have shown an increasing trend every year from 101348 units in FY06 to 243365 units FY11 showing a CAGR of 19%. Selling price per unit has shown an increasing trend from Rs. 26600 FY06 to Rs. 33700 in FY09 and than started showing a decreasing trend to Rs. 29000. Total sales from Air-conditioners segment have grown from Rs. 269.91 cr in FY06 to Rs. 707.20 cr in FY11 growing at a CAGR of 21%.
• Hitachi is also into trading of Refrigerators which is mainly targeted for premium segment in the market. Total units sold have grown at an impressive CAGR of 76% from 843 units in FY06 to 14432 units in FY11. Selling price per unit has increased from Rs. 27900 to Rs. 35400 in the last 6 years which translated into sales of Rs. 2.35 cr to Rs. 51.08 cr growing at a CAGR of 85%.
• Hitachi also generates revenues from providing after sales services. With growth in the products the service revenues has also grown over the years and contributes around 6% of the total sales.
• On a consolidated basis in the last 6 years Hitachi has increased its top-line by 24% CAGR with Air-conditioners and Refrigerators being the major revenue contributor to the company.           

Income statement analysis

• Raw material and traded goods cost is the major expenditure for the company. Over the last 6 years this cost has been around 65% of sales. The growth in this cost has been in line with the growth in sales.
• Selling and distributions cost has been around 12% to 13% of sales followed by operating and other expenses with 9% to 10% of sales.
• Over the last 6 years company has constantly upgraded its product portfolio and increased its reach in the market, due to which the cost has been on the higher side for the company. Total expenditure has been around 94% to 95% of sales.
• This has translated into the operating profit margin of around 5% followed by net profit margin of 4% on an average for the company.
• Over all the company with introduction of new product and technology and with changing demand scenario has managed to grow its top-line impressively in the last 6 years but due to increasing cost structure and setting up its base for future growth the bottom line has failed to show an impressive performance for the company.  

      Balance sheet and Ratio Analysis

• Hitachi has financed its growth from internal accruals as well as from outside debt. In the last 3 years it has invested around Rs. 132 cr in its fixed assets and generated an average return on fixed asset of 32%. Additional plant was built adjacent to its old plant in FY10 for manufacturing of Air-conditioners and also opened several services centers in the country.
• Inventory as a % of sales has been on a higher side at 28% to 30% on an average due to seasonality of the business as the company needs to keep the stock of finished goods in summers. In FY11 the inventories has increased by a whooping 82% due to extended winters and early rains which hampered the sales of goods. This impacted the cash flow from operations and resulted in reduced cash balance for the year. Receivables have been managed reasonably in line with sales.  
• Creditors have also shown an increasing trend, financing the major part of current assets of the company. Thus current ratio has been well maintained at an average of 1.3 times historically.
• Its current Debt/Equity ratio stands at 0.52 which is at a comfortable level. Increase in debt from Rs. 60 cr to Rs. 90 cr was mainly to finance its working capital requirement. Hence the Debt/Net profit ratio stands at 3.07 which is not a big cause of concern.
• It has increased the shareholders fund from Rs. 61.8 cr to Rs. 172 cr in the last 6 years with CAGR of 23%. It has paid a dividend of Rs. 1.5 for FY11.
• Hitachi has constantly improved the product offering in terms of latest technology and introducing new product in the market which has helped them achieve an ROCE and ROE of 21% and 30% on an average respectively in the last 6 years.
• On a consolidated view the balance sheet does not pose much problem for the company has it has managed well to finance its fixed assets and increase the shareholders fund at a decent rate. Except for growing inventories (due to seasonality reason) the overall picture looks decent.  

      Key developments/Growth Driver

Improving demand scenario:

• The Indian retail market, which is the fifth largest retail destination globally, has been ranked as the most attractive emerging market for investment in the retail sector. The organized retail sector is all set to witness maximum number of large format malls and branded retail stores in the next two years. Organized retail would not only streamline the supply chain, but also facilitate increased demand, especially for high-end and branded products.
• Indian Air conditioning industry is experiencing a radical change since last few years. There are several factors favoring the Indian Air-conditioner market growth. Changing lifestyles, rise in disposable incomes and the ease of availability will increase the Air-conditioners penetration in future. Room Air conditioner penetration in India is at approx 3% which is very low compared to other countries like China, Malaysia, Korea, Taiwan etc. It is expected to grow up to 5% by 2015.

      Brand Hitachi:

• Hitachi has healthy brand equity in the Air-conditioners market wherein it is positioned as a high‐end and premium brand. Hitachi has always pioneered in technology and innovation and has been ahead of the competition in introducing newer concepts and features in air-conditioning due to its high spending on R&D. This has enabled them to achieve higher growth in all the areas it operates.
• In Room Air-conditioner segment it has been able to grow at 46% over the last year with 2.3 lacs unit against 1.58 lacs unit. In the Commercial Air-conditioners market it has shown a positive trend by growing at 11% in Ductable air-conditioner segment. In Chiller and VRF segments it has managed to grow above industry growth rate. In Telecom Air-conditioner segment it has maintained its leadership position with the market share of 42%.
• From next year onwards BEE is making the star rating system more stringent, which means the EER of all star ratings will go up. Therefore to qualify to be a 5 star Air conditioner the minimum EER will be 3.3, which is 3.1 at present. Hitachi currently offers higher EERs in all the models therefore it will easily adapt to the new system with ease.
• The company is improving its services by opening up of various service centers across the country with employing trained workforce thus improving the after sales services resulting in better customer satisfaction. 
• Thus brand Hitachi appears to be better placed among white-goods makers as it has shown a strong and committed focus to grow and create value for the company in the coming future.  

      Launch of new products: 

• Hitachi, which has been only in the premium air-conditioner market, is now making inroads into the mass-premium category. In FY10 it entered into mass premium range of Split and Window Air-conditioner with launch of Kaze series targeting the fast growing niche segments of the Tier-II and Tier-III cities, where buying power is on the rise.
• Following the success of ‘Kaze’ series last year it launched a new variant ‘i-clean' series of Split Air-conditioners and India’s first ever 5 star rated Window Air-conditioner ‘Summer’. It also launched new models of its popular Split Air -conditioner models ‘ACE Followme’, ‘ACE Cutout’ and ‘i-Tec’, with new looks and advanced features. Now Hitachi’s Split Air-conditioners range comprises of 25 models, with capacities ranging from 0.9 Tr. to 3.5 Tr. Class. The Window Air-conditioner range includes 10 models within 1 tonnes to 2 tonnes class capacities.
• Hitachi has also introduced various new series of Refrigerators. It has 16 models in 3 variants i.e. Big French (4-Door), three door and two door refrigerators. Company operates in 300 Liters and above frost free segment only which is only 15% of total refrigerator industry. It focuses only in premium category therefore the huge sales volume is not expected. However it has shown very encouraging growth historically and is expected to do well as market conditions improve.
• It is planning to re-enter the Indian market for washing machines with a range of top-and front-loading washing machines in the coming months which will further increase the top line of the company.

      Expanding its reach:

• Hitachi enjoys a share of 7.5% in the room air-conditioner market in India and plans to increase this to 10% by FY12 and 15% by FY15. It has build a strong nationwide distribution with presence in 236 town (plans to increase this to 300 cities) consisting of 18 Branches, 159 Exclusive Sales and Service dealers; more than 1800 Showroom dealers (plans to increase it to 3000 by end of 2011), 350 Service Points along with 32 company owned and operated service centers-manned by 1200 technicians. With these stations fully operational now, it will boost the sales in a big way in the coming future.

      Concerns:

• Increase in commodity prices like steel, copper, aluminum is forcing all the manufacturers to increase the price. Freight cost and increasing operating costs will increase the over all cost. Because of BEE standards of Energy efficiency the specifications of all Air-conditioners are going up which results in the cost increase.
• The cost of finance is going up and Banks/NBFCs are tightening their norms to take exposure on consumer finances, consequently the funding options have minimized. Inventory funding is also very tight, which is not a good situation for intermediaries to run their operations.
• High electricity cost & consistency in power supply remain a hindrance in the growth of business. Long power cuts and voltage fluctuations may affect the pace of industry growth.
• The import of low cost products from neighboring countries continues to be a threat to the consumer durable industry.
• Growth in Real estate has been subdued which is a negative sign for consumer durables sector.
• Increased competition from other organized players Voltas, Onida, LG, Samsung, Whirlpool and others will result in stiff competition and also face pricing pressure.

What If Scenario?

Now this is a very interesting section of my analysis. Here I try to find out the worth of the company if things don’t turn out to be very hunky-dory and company has to face tough times in the foreseeable future. Through this approach one can get a fair idea of the entry point in the stock and reduce ones risk from buying at higher price. So lets look at what would Hitachi value be in such scenario.

Major Assumptions

Income statement

• Sales: In the last 6 years Hitachi has grown at an average rate of 26% and at 24% CAGR. I assume that the sales will grow at 7% to 8% in the next three years.
• Raw materials and traded goods cost: Historically it has grown in line with growth of sales. I assume the same trend to continue and be at 65% of sales.
• Operating profit margin: Historically margins have been in the rage of 5% to 7%. Going forward I assume the operating margin to decrease and be at 4% as cost will increase more than the sales.
• Net profit margin: Subdued sales and increase in cost will result in lower net profit margin. Historically it is in the range of 4% to 6% on an average. I assume the net profit in the coming future to be at 3%.

      Balance Sheet

• Inventories: Inventories in the major portion of current assets. Any changes in this will affect the cash flow from operations. Historically inventories as a % of sales have been in the range of 28% to 30%. It showed a massive increase due to weaker sales in FY11. Going forward I expect the inventories level to be maintain at a decreasing range of 40% to 34% (still higher than the historic range) of sales as market condition start improving.
• Debtors: I assume it to grow in line with sales.
• Creditors: I assume the creditors to remain flat for the forecasted period.
• Fixed Assets: In last 3 years Hitachi as invested around Rs. 132 cr in its fixed assets for increasing the capacity and opening up of services centers. Going forward I assume it will continue to invest in its fixed assets at an average rate of 4% of sales. This is an important assumption as this directly affects the FCF, thus affecting the valuations.
• Total Debt: I assume the company to raise more debt in the current year to finance its working capital and expect to show slight decrease in the coming years.

      DCF

• I have assumed a 2 stage growth model as I believe the investment made in the last 3 historic periods and in the forecasted period will start giving fruitful result. I assume in the 1^st stage of 3 year the FCF to grow by 8% and in the stable period to grow by mere 4% perpetually.

 
      On a consolidated view I have assumed the current year not to be very good for Hitachi and expect the           momentum to start picking up slowly in FY12 onwards.

With all the above assumptions we arrive at a DCF price of Rs. 157 against the CMP Rs. 180 as on 8/9/2011 which is based on a very conservative approach.

Considering all the above factors I believe Hitachi has very well positioned itself in the White goods market by building a strong portfolio of products and services with advanced technology and is ready to grab the huge opportunity which India is presenting by expanding its reach across the country. We should see a strong growth in net sales and profit in the coming future. 

Fingers Crossed on Hitachi!!!!

How about you? 

Tata Sponge Iron Ltd

Hello once again to all my readers. As I promised to come up with companies with sound business models and investing opportunities, here I am presenting to you one such company who has been doing a great job in managing its business and increasing the shareholders value year over year. The company which I am talking about is Tata Sponge Iron Ltd. Let us now learn more about this company.

Company Profile:

Tata Sponge Iron Ltd (TSIL) is an associate company of Tata Steel. It is into manufacturing of Sponge Iron. It has manufacturing facility at Bilaipada (in Joda Block of Keonjhar District in Orissa) with total production capacity of 390,000 TPA from 3 kilns. It has 2 captive power plants using waste heat recovery producing 26MV of power and exports its surplus power to the State Electricity Corporation. For this purpose, the company has installed a private 220 KV power transmission line from its plant to the nearest grid station at Joda (7 kms) to facilitate uninterrupted power transmission to and from the Grid (in case of emergency in the plant).

The company's primary product, sponge iron, is a high quality pre-reduced ferrous material and, therefore, is preferred to most other materials in place of steel scrap by secondary steel producers operating induction and electric arc furnaces for producing long products for meeting the demand of the construction and infrastructure sectors. More about sponge iron you can check this link here. For process of making sponge iron you can check this linkhere:

 Historic performance review: 

·         TSIL has installed capacity of 390000 TPA from 3 kilns and has shown an improvement in performance every year by increasing the capacity utilization from 72% in FY07 to 98% in FY11.

·         Total quantity sold has also grown at a healthy rate Y-o-Y as demand from secondary steel makers kept on increasing. The total quantity sold increased from 206665 TPA in FY06 to 380273 TPA in FY11 with a CAGR of 13%.

·         The selling price per tonne has increased from Rs 10697 in FY05 to Rs 18388 in FY11 with CAGR of 10%. The price decreased in FY10 due to recessionary factors which were also seen in the prices of raw materials.

·         The total raw material cost per unit has shown a consistent increase from FY05 to FY11 except for FY10 ranging from Rs 3842 tonne to Rs 9905 tonne at a CAGR of 17%. Coal accounts for approx 55% of cost with iron ore around 40% to 43% and remaining portion from Dolomite. The total raw material cost per tonne as a % of realization per tonne has shown an increasing trend from 47% in FY06 to 54% in FY11 implying that the increase in cost is more than the increase in realizations.

·         In power segment it has an installed capacity of units 227.76 millions KWH. Total units produced as a % of installed capacity has shown an increasing trend from 73% in FY08 to 84% in FY11. On an average the company has sold around 70% of units produced to the state grid and used the rest 30% for captive use. Power segment contributes around 5% to 7% of the total sales.    

·         With the above developments the total sales of the company had an impressive growth from last 7 years showing a CAGR of 20%. The raw material cost as a percent of sales is around 65% in FY11 which is the major cost for the company.

·         Operating profit margins was lowest in FY07 at 7% as net realizations grew marginally compared to huge spike in raw materials cost.  Margins were back to normal rate from FY08 at 27% but started showing a decreasing trend from there on to 20% in FY11. This was due to increase in the raw material prices which effected the net profit margins as well, which is been decreasing from last 20% in FY08 to 15% in FY11.

·         The contribution from other income and earnings from carbon credit off set the increase in raw material prices to some extent and it was able to maintain the bottom line at a reasonable level.

·         TSIL has financed its investments through debt and internal accruals. It has made major investment in fixed assets in FY06 to increase the installed capacity and in FY10 in Radhikapur for development of coal blocks.

·         The company has managed their working capital very optimally which led to increase in cash flow from operations. With this it has paid down all its debt and become a debt free entity from FY09 onwards and currently the cash position stands at a healthy amount of Rs 188 Cr and investment of Rs 34 Cr in liquid funds.

·         The way it has managed its operations over the past has reflected in increase in the shareholders fund from Rs. 132 Cr to Rs 508 Cr at a CAGR of 25% from FY05 to FY11. It has also paid consistent dividend to shareholders.

·         Over the last 7 years TSIL has paid out 14% of its net earnings as dividend to the shareholders. The rest 86% it has invested back in its business on which it has earned an average return on equity of 27% every year.

Growth Drivers:

Future of sponge iron is linked to the growth of steel demand in country and its fulfillment through secondary steel sector. Growth in the steel demand has strong correlation with growth in GDP of nation. As Indian economy is slated to exhibit robust growth in GDP, steel demand is also expected to grow in tandem. Although there is slowing down of growth in steel industry in the medium term, integrated steel plants still fall short in capacity to meet full demand of steel in India. Secondary Steel sector will continue to play significant role in steel supply in the country. The thrust by the government on infrastructure development gives hope for expansion of integrated steel plants in India.

·         In FY05 company had laid down its long term plan of installing 6 kilns along with generating green energy. TSIL has installed capacity of 390000 TPA from 3 kilns and has shown an improvement in performance every year by increasing the capacity utilization from 72% in FY07 to 98% in FY11. Increase in capacity is the only option for the company at this point in time so as to increase their top line. The company is also planning to venture into steel production but given the potential for sponge iron in the coming future I believe the company will focus majorly into making sponge iron.

·         The cost of iron ore and coal constitute major cost of production. Therefore the profitability of the company depends on market price of these raw materials vis-à-vis price of sponge iron. The only way to substantially reduce the cost of iron ore and coal is to have captive mines for these raw materials.

·         TSIL sources entire requirement from Tata Steel, where it offers some discount to the market prices. Tata Steel supplies iron ore from its Khondbond mines in Orissa, which is 25km distance from TSIL plant thus reducing the transportation cost. A secured source of iron ore is an asset for the company, as quality and quantity is maintained. It also helps to reduce the effect of raw material price volatility and improve margins. It sources Coal from domestic sources through e-auction and imports. The Coal block at Radhikapur is expected to become operational from FY12-13. This will decrease the raw material cost substantially and an assurance of continues supply will help company improve its margins in the coming future.

·         Utilization of waste resulting from production of sponge iron to generate power has made a great impact as uninterrupted supply of power is assured and also on financials of the company resulting in additional revenues and better operational efficiencies. The company now plans to recycle waste char (from kilns) to generate power through the AFBC boiler based power plant. However, according to management of TSIL, this is at nascent stage and expected to be operational after FY12-FY13. This will further result in improvement in the sales and margins.

·         Improved performance over the years has resulted in strong balance sheet of the company. It has Rs 220 Cr in form of cash and cash equivalents with no debt and addition to this it has around Rs 129 Cr as capital work in progress backed by optimal working capital management has put the company in an advantageous position. Thus it can easily survive in bad conditions and can easily finance its future investment with internal accruals of the company.

Concerns:

·         As a pure sponge iron player (95% of revenue) earning is volatile due to inherent volatility in raw material prices. TSIL is procuring all its Iron ore from Tata Steel Ltd, which is the only supplier to the company. Any disruptions in the supply of Iron ore will have a major impact on company operations. Any delays in development of coal field will mean that the company will have to continue to procure the raw materials through imports and from indigenous sources.

·         Poor quality of indigenous coal, dumping of scrap by overseas players, recessionary conditions, liquidity crunch in financial markets etc are some of the significant threats being presently faced by the company.

·         The infrastructural constraints at ports and rail-rake availability are posing problems in getting imported coal from ports and by rails. The transportation cost is high due to existence of transport union in state of Orissa. All this factors will increase the cost and will decrease the profit margins.

Well the above points does make one believe the way it has performed historically is awesome and various developments expected to take place will certainly improve the company’s performance.

But hey wait a sec… what if history doesn’t repeat itself. With the global crisis going around it does seems things will be very difficult for a year or may be more or may be with such sound management the company will be able to overcome all the hurdles and show a strong performance Will it??

It’s a difficult question to answer.      

To make things a bit clear and to reduce our risk and be on a safer side let us assume that things will be very difficult for next two years and work out a scenario where we try to analyze the not so good performance by the company and see where does the company stand if things fall out this way.

Assumptions:

Sales:

·         I have assumed that there will be no expansion in the installed capacity for the coming future.

·         Production as a % of installed capacity will decrease because of weak market conditions and rise slowly as things get better.

·         Total quantity sold will decrease and as a result the inventory will show an increasing trend in the coming future.

·         Historically in the past 4 years the selling price per tonne as been in the range of Rs. 14000 to Rs. 18000 on an average. I have assumed that the selling price per tonne will decrease and be around Rs 16500.

·         In power segment since it is linked with the production of sponge iron, I have assumed that there will be flat growth in terms of revenues.

·         With all the above assumption we arrive at the gross revenue which shows negative growth in FY12 and than slowly picking up with single digit growth.

Raw Materials

Raw materials (Iron ore and Coal) are the major cost for the company and any changes in this will impact the profitability of the company.

·         Here I have assumed that the raw material cost will not decrease and will be on a higher side in the future hampering the margins of the company.

Margins:

·         Historically the operating profit margin has been in a decreasing trend from 27% in FY08 to 19% in FY11 due to increase in raw material costs. Since we have assumed that the selling price will decrease because of the competition and the raw material cost to keep increasing, the operating profit margins will take a hit and remain in the range from 8% to 13% in the forecasted period as company is unable to pass on this increase to the end customer.

·         This will also decrease the net profit margins and assume it to be in the range of 8% to 10%.

Working capital:

I have assumed Debtors and inventories as a % of sales to increase in the forecasted period because of weak market conditions and expect the creditors to be flat putting pressure on company balance sheet which will result in decrease in cash flow from operations for the company.

Fixed Assets

·         Here I have assumed the company to keep on investing in its fixed assets for the development of coal block and also the capacity but with execution delays. This is a very critical assumption to make as it directly affects the Free cash flow of the company.

DCF Assumption

·         Here I assume a single stage growth model and expect that the company after the forecasted period will grow by mere 2% perpetually.

Alright than now that we have made a roadmap for the coming periods with the above assumptions and being as conservative as possible we get the DCF price of Rs 295. This is the fair value of the company if the above scenario falls in place.

At CMP of 300 as on 30^th Aug 2011 we are very close to the fair value of the worst performance of the company. Any revival in the demand scenario and economy should have a positive impact on the company financials and I believe with such great management the company should do well even in the bad times.

I have kept my Fingers Crossed on this idea!!!!

How about you????

Welcome to my Blog !!!

Hello to all the readers and welcome to my blog. My name is Yogesh N Bang and I am from Karnataka. I did my PGP in Finance and worked a couple of years as Equity Research Analyst. I intend to share my thoughts on Indian Equities through this blog and come up with companies with sound business models and investing opportunities. I hope this effort of mine does create a difference in your investing world.

Most of my learning has been inspired by many value investors, reading blogs and books on investing, though I haven’t read a lot of books but try to catch it in between. It’s been around 2 years I started investing in markets from my own money and it has been a good learning experience for me. Initially I was more into speculative mode of investing, trying to play more of intraday stuff and that has cost me lot. I have realized that I need to invest smartly and not play like a fool. I am also improving my research skills and I hope this blog will help me understand my growth as an Analyst and as Investor.

I would like to dedicate this blog firstly to my "PARENTS" for their love and support and to my "SIR" who has introduced me to this field of Equity Research and held my hand and helped me walk every step on this journey.  It has always been a pleasure to learn from him and I hope I can make my Sir and my Parents very proud one day.

I believe your feedback and suggestion on various topics discussed will make me and all the readers take better and smart investment decisions and make this blog a useful resource for everyone of us.

Thanks a lot for dropping by.

Yogesh N Bang

Disclaimer

No content on this blog should be construed to be investment advice. You should consult a qualified financial advisor before making any real investment or trading decisions. All information is a point of view, and is for educational and informational use only. This Blog is a personal diary and the stocks discussed on the blog represent my personal views and analysis. They are not recommendations to buy or sell stocks and I may or may not be holding the stocks discussed in this blog. In short I am not responsible for the losses or gains made based on the information published on this Blog.